# Measuring deal risks and opportunities

*Agentforce Sales Foundations Study Guide · Forecasting · Last updated October 16, 2026 · https://www.certifyforce.com/study-guide/agentforce-sales-foundations/forecasting/measuring-deal-risks-and-opportunities*

How to weigh a deal before you forecast it: the evidence that separates a commit from upside, why a keen champion is not enough, and how renewals and price increases carry their own risk and growth.

- Certification: Salesforce Agentforce Sales Foundations
- Exam section: Forecasting
- Study guide: https://www.certifyforce.com/study-guide/agentforce-sales-foundations

**Official exam objective:**

> Measure the risks and opportunities associated with a business deal.

## What the exam expects

- Test a deal against the evidence Salesforce asks managers to check (budget, executive sign-off, engaged decision makers, quantified ROI, a compelling event) and name what is missing.
- Decide whether a deal is a commit or upside, and keep upside in the pipeline rather than dropping it.
- Treat a renewal as a deal with its own risks: watch usage and stakeholder changes, and start the conversation early.
- Explain a price increase by the value behind it instead of waiving it before you know price is the concern.

Key terms:
- **Deal risk:** a gap in the evidence that a deal will close in the period (no budget, no sign-off, no ROI, no compelling event).
- **Upside:** exam convention for a real opportunity that might close this period but is not yet committed.
- **Forecast category:** the Salesforce grouping (Pipeline, Best Case, Most Likely, Commit, Closed) that shows how likely a deal is to close.
- **Champion:** the enthusiastic contact inside the account who supports your deal but may not control the budget.

## Key facts

| Fact | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Five deal inspection questions | Budget, executive sign-off, engaged decision makers, quantified ROI, compelling event | [Forecast with Precision](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-territories-and-forecasting/sales-forecast-with-precision) |
| Timing check | Compelling events or budget tell you if a deal can close on schedule | [Track the Most Important Metrics](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-territories-and-forecasting/forecast-with-precision) |
| Pipeline vs forecast | Pipeline is all open deals; forecast is the subset expected to close in the period | [Forecast with Precision](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-territories-and-forecasting/sales-forecast-with-precision) |
| Forecast category | Mapped from the opportunity stage; indicates likelihood to close | [Configure Forecasting](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-forecasting/configure-sales-forecasting-in-salesforce) |
| What a renewal offers | Growth, better payment terms, pricing adjustment, early warning of account issues | [Purchase to Renewal](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/appx_customer_success/appx_customer_success_journey) |
| Reasons Salesforce gives to adjust pricing at renewal | Market rate, product innovation, recouping discounts | [Purchase to Renewal](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/appx_customer_success/appx_customer_success_journey) |
| When to start renewal talks | Before the term expires, on a set review timeline with reminders months ahead | [Purchase to Renewal](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/appx_customer_success/appx_customer_success_journey) |

## Check yourself

- Why isn't an enthusiastic champion enough to commit a deal?
- When should a rep start the renewal conversation?
- Which reasons does Salesforce give for adjusting price at renewal?
- What does a forecast category tell you about an opportunity?

## Sources

- [Forecast with Precision](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-territories-and-forecasting/sales-forecast-with-precision)
- [Take Your Customers from Purchase to Renewal](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/appx_customer_success/appx_customer_success_journey)
- [Configure Forecasting in Salesforce](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-forecasting/configure-sales-forecasting-in-salesforce)
- [Track the Most Important Metrics](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-territories-and-forecasting/forecast-with-precision)
- [Build a Healthy Sales Pipeline](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/sales-pipeline-basics/build-a-healthy-sales-pipeline)
- [Cert Prep: Refresh Your Forecasting Skills](https://trailhead.salesforce.com/content/learn/modules/cert-prep-salesforce-certified-sales-representative/refresh-your-forecasting-skills)

## About the full unit

The "Core concepts", "Exam traps" and "Worked scenario" sections of this unit, its 2 linked practice questions, and unlimited timed mock exams are included with the Agentforce Sales Foundations pack (USD $19): https://www.certifyforce.com/practice-exams